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OrchestraPrime · AI in GxP template pack · T2 of T1–T10

T2 — AI Risk Assessment

Free templateVersion 1.0 (public edition)Published 2026-09-23Author Nitin Bhatti, OrchestraPrimeCompanion article Validation Strategy, Applied: Agentic AI in GxP, §8.2 AI risk assessment

How to use this template

What it is for

Identify how this AI use can fail in its context of use, rate those failures, and assign the controls that bring residual risk to an acceptable level. The result sets the depth of testing in T6 and of monitoring in T8.

When in the lifecycle

Risk. Runs after intake (T1) and the context-of-use specification (T3), and before the validation plan (T6). Re-opened on any of the re-assessment triggers in Section 7. Control 8.2 of the eight lifecycle controls (AI risk assessment). Its result sets the depth of testing in T6 and of monitoring in T8.

Who owns it

A cross-functional risk team (process or clinical SME, Quality / CSV, data science, IT, business owner) led by a risk facilitator; business owner, SME and Quality / CSV approve.

Validate the controls around the model for a specific context of use, not the model in the abstract.

Risk belongs to the use, not to the model. The same model can be low risk as a drafting aid and high risk as a release gate. We assess, and later verify, the controls around the model for this specific decision.

Template pack
AI Validation in GxP (T1–T10) | Companion to Validation Strategy, Applied: Agentic AI in GxP, sections §7 (Q1), §9 (Q3), §8.2 (Q8.2)
Method
ICH Q9(R1) quality risk management; model risk = model influence × decision consequence (FDA draft guidance, January 2025, Step 3).

Practitioner template, provided as-is. Adapt to your QMS, SOPs and risk method; it is not a substitute for your quality unit's approval. Worked-example values are illustrative. This template refers to the other templates in the pack by ID (T1–T10); T1, T2 and T8 are free on this site, the other seven are available on request.

Document Control

FieldEntry
Document IDT2-AI-XXXX
Version0.1
AI function / agentname, registry ID
Linked T1 (intake)T1-AI-XXXX, tier
Linked T3 (context of use)T3-AI-XXXX
Risk facilitatorrole
DateYYYY-MM-DD

Risk Team (cross-functional, per Annex 22 §2.1)

RoleNamePresent
Process / clinical SMEnameY/N
Quality / CSVnameY/N
Data scientist / AI engineernameY/N
IT / platformnameY/N
Business ownernameY/N

Approvals

RoleNameSignatureDate
Business ownernamee-signaturedate
SMEnamee-signaturedate
Quality / CSVnamee-signaturedate

Revision History

VersionDateAuthorChange summary
0.1dateauthorInitial assessment

1. Context of Use (summary from T1 / T3)

FieldEntry
Decision supported
Question of interest
Component(s) assessedfrom T1 Section 6
Posture per componentCat 5 / Annex 22 / Pattern A
Human roledecides and signs / reviews each output / none
Input sample space and subgroupssites, products, document types, defect classes, languages

2. Model Risk (FDA 2025 draft, Step 3)

2.1 Definitions

LevelModel influenceDecision consequence
LowOne of several inputs; independent evidence always reviewed; human decidesWrong decision is caught downstream before any GxP impact; administrative only
MediumMain input to a human decision; human review present but framed by the AI outputWrong decision could affect a GxP record or delay a quality action, but is recoverable
HighSole or determining input; automated action or minimal reviewWrong decision could reach a patient, a released batch, or a regulatory submission

2.2 Matrix

Influence ↓ / Consequence →LowMediumHigh
HighMediumHighHigh
MediumLowMediumHigh
LowLowLowMedium

2.3 Rating

ComponentInfluenceConsequenceModel riskRationale
C1L/M/HL/M/HL/M/H
C2

3. Failure-Mode Library (AI-specific, pre-populated)

IDFailure modeTypical causeTypical effectCandidate controlsGov.
FM-01False negative on a critical subgroupRare subgroup under-represented in training or test data; threshold too highMissed defect, drift, safety signal, or compliance findingStratified test set with critical subgroups; subgroup acceptance criteria (Annex 22 §4.2); confidence threshold with "undecided" (§9.2); periodic re-challengeG6, G7
FM-02False positives / alert floodThreshold too low; noisy inputsAlert fatigue; reviewers ignore real signalsPrecision target; de-duplication; alert-fatigue KPI; feedback-driven suppression under change controlG4, G7
FM-03Out-of-distribution inputNew site, supplier, product, document type, or language outside the input sample spaceUnreliable output that still looks confidentDocumented input sample space (§3.1); OOD / input-drift monitoring (§10.4); scope checks that refuse or escalateG4, G6
FM-04Performance drift over timeProcess, equipment, lighting, or population changes; model unchangedSilent loss of sensitivity or precisionPerformance monitoring on validated metrics (§10.3); periodic re-challenge; drift thresholds with a response playbookG4
FM-05Confidence mis-calibrationModel over- or under-confident; bands set on uncalibrated scoresAutonomy bands route wrong casesCalibration test (reliability diagram, Brier score); boundary-case tests on each bandG4, G7
FM-06Automation bias in human reviewReviewer trusts the AI output; high volume; draft frames judgmentHITL control ineffective; errors pass sign-offHITL challenge test with seeded errors; acceptance-rate monitoring (flag > 98% sustained); reviewer training (§3.3)G2, G7
FM-07Bias or inequity across sites, products, or populationsTraining data concentrated in some sites or populationsUnequal performance; wrong decisions for a subgroupSubgroup metrics per site/product/population; bias monitoring; representative data planG8
FM-08Test-data leakageTest data used in development; staff with test access tune the modelInflated validation result; real performance lowerTest-data independence, access control, audit trail, staff independence (Annex 22 §6)G3, G6
FM-09Prompt injection / adversarial input (agents, LLMs)Instructions hidden in source documents or user inputAgent ignores policy, leaks data, or takes unintended actionInput sanitisation; instruction hierarchy; red-team test set; tool allowlist; output checkerG5, G7
FM-10Tool misuse or unintended action (agents)Model selects the wrong tool or wrong parameters, or loopsWrong data written; wrong system touched; cost overrun≤5-tool allowlist; deterministic orchestration where the path must be reproducible; read-only by default; rate limits and kill switch; trajectory testsG5, G7
FM-11Hallucination / unsupported claim (generative)Model generates content not in the approved sourcesFalse statement enters a GxP record or submissionApproved-source grounding; span-level citations; deterministic checker; refusal on unsupported claims; HITLG1, G6
FM-12Vendor or foundation-model changeVendor updates or deprecates the model; silent behavior changeValidated state lost without a change recordModel version pinning; vendor change-notification clause; regression suite ready; change control on model swapG6
FM-13Non-reproducible output (probabilistic)Sampling variabilitySame case gives different answers; cannot reconstruct for an inspectorN-run testing with distribution acceptance; log the full output, version, and parameters per executionG3, G6
FM-14Configuration drift / unauthorised changePrompt, threshold, or index edited outside change controlUntested behavior in productionConfiguration control with detection of unauthorised change (Annex 22 §10.2); hash checksG3, G6
FM-15Label error in training or test dataMislabelled ground truthModel learns or is scored against the wrong answerMulti-expert adjudication (§5.3); labeller attribution (ALCOA+); no AI-generated test labels (§5.6)G1, G6

4. FMEA Table (ICH Q9(R1))

IDFailure mode (use-specific)EffectSPDRPNControl(s)Verified in (T6 test ID / T8 KPI)SP'D'Residual RPNAccept?
FM-01Y/N
FM-..

5. Control Mapping to the Governance Plane (G1–G8)

CategoryQuestion it answersControls applied to this useEvidence location
G1 Evidence provenanceWhere did this come from?approved sources, citations, data lineage
G2 Decision provenanceWhat did the human do, and why?accept/modify/reject capture, rationale
G3 Traceability & auditCan we reconstruct it for an inspector?Part 11 trail, execution history
G4 AI observabilityIs it behaving as validated?metric, drift, calibration monitoring
G5 Identity & accessWho or what may touch it?agent identity, tool allowlist, RBAC
G6 Validation & change controlHow do we know it works, and what happens on change?T6 tests, version pinning, predetermined changes (T9)
G7 Autonomy & safetyWhen does the human take over?confidence bands, HITL gates, kill switch, degraded mode
G8 Responsible AI & regulatoryWould we explain this to a regulator?subgroup/bias monitoring, DPIA, AI Act classification

6. Residual Risk Conclusion

FieldEntry
Highest residual RPN
Any residual S = 5 items?Y/N — list with justification
Overall residual riskAcceptable / Acceptable with conditions / Not acceptable
Conditions (if any)e.g., advisory-only until 3 months of monitoring data; restricted to sites A–B
Required T6 depthLow / Medium / High, per Section 2 note

7. Re-assessment Triggers

Appendix A — Worked Example: UC-M2 CPV Signal Agent (illustrative)Illustrative worked example

Model risk (Section 2)

ComponentInfluenceConsequenceModel riskRationale
C1 SPC / capability engineHighHighHighDetermines which drifts are flagged; a miss can allow an out-of-trend batch to be released
C2 MSPC model (static PCA)HighHighHighOnly detector for multivariate interactions (e.g., a pH × temperature effect on glycosylation)
C3 Narrative LLMLowMediumLowExplains a signal the scientist can see on the chart; does not decide
C4 OrchestratorMediumMediumMediumPrioritisation and routing affect how quickly a signal is dispositioned

FMEA extract (Section 4; scores illustrative)

IDFailure modeSPDRPNControlVerified inP'D'Residual
FM-01MSPC misses a real multivariate drift at a new site53460Site-stratified held-out detection test; quarterly re-challenge with 25 seeded historical drifts; APQR cross-checkT6-ACC-03; T8-KPI-022220
FM-02Alert flood from benign seasonal raw-material variation34224Precision ≥ 0.80 target; lot-effect specialist; feedback suppression under change controlT6-ACC-05; T8-KPI-012212
FM-03Batches from a new line fall outside the NOC envelope43336Input-space monitor (> 5% outside NOC for non-process reasons → alert); model-transfer protocol (T9)T8-KPI-032216
FM-06Scientists accept every signal disposition proposed by the agent43448Acceptance-rate monitoring (flag > 0.98); quarterly seeded benign/real mixT6-HITL-01; T8-KPI-042216
FM-11Narrative mis-states a Ppk value33218Checker numeric-consistency rule; the chart is shown alongsideT6-GRD-01113

Conclusion. Residual risk acceptable with conditions: advisory to MS&T only for the first 3 months of production, then the full signal routing. T6 depth: High (C1, C2); Low (C3). Re-assess on any new site onboarding.

This is one of ten templates.

The full pack — intake, risk, context of use, data management, design spec, validation plan, summary report, monitoring plan, predetermined change control and periodic review — is available on request.

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